Table of Contents Issue 4, 2024
Issue 4 August 2024
Editorial - A European Industrial Policy and the EU's Turning Point
European Union; Industrial policy
The need for a new, overarching approach to economic productivity and security has been acknowledged widely in European quarters. In September 2023, the President of the Commission asked Mario Draghi to prepare a report on the topic which is supposed to be published soon. In the meantime, the former President of the European Central Bank has given various indications about its contents. In his first speech outlining the report,1 he highlighted the need for radical change in the shape of a new European industrial policy to tackle today’s challenges in a coordinated and effective fashion. The report will put special emphasis on green, digital, and security challenges, and the common threads will be enabling scale, providing public goods, and securing the supply of essential resources across different sectors. This new industrial strategy, the report will argue, requires a more centralised approach; to this end, the report will propose the creation of a new strategic tool to coordinate different economic policies, without waiting for Treaty change and, if necessary, resorting to enhanced co-operation.
A few weeks later, Mario Draghi shared more details of his forthcoming report.2 He took the opportunity to emphasise again the impending challenges (technological change, the green transition, the need for greater defence capability), the changing geopolitical landscape, and the need to move away from the EU’s previous approach to economic policy, trade, and its faith in the rule-based international order. This, he argued, requires an industrial policy that places greater weight on political considerations and that—without becoming protectionist—makes careful use of tariffs and subsidies (“We don’t want to become protectionist in Europe, but we cannot be passive if the actions of others are threatening our prosperity.”)3 Again, a European industrial policy would need better co-ordination across economic policies, and it would require spending. Draghi has been vocal in the past about the need for common EU financing, and this report will be no exception (“We would derive enormous benefit from some form of common financing, but I don’t want to restate things that I’ve said many times in the past today.”)4 Regardless of the particular form of funding, the speech emphasised—rightly—that important decisions about the substance of this industrial policy and its financing will need to be made, and that these are likely to require “a yet unseen degree of cooperation and coordination between the Member States of the European Union.”5
We will have to wait for the full report and its eventual reception and use by the Commission to learn more about the proposed coordination instruments and the funding and spending mechanisms behind a future European industrial policy. The political guidelines for the next Commission proposed by Ursula von der Leyen when standing for re-election as President of the Commission in July 2024 echo many of the priorities outlined by Mario Draghi:6 there is mention of a future Competitiveness Fund and a European Defence Fund,7 as well as a new economic foreign policy that advances economic security.8 The proposal mentions the need for a new approach to the EU budget and for Treaty reform,9 without going into details. Member States, too, share an awareness of the challenges facing the EU, and an agreement on the need for significant change: see, for example, Emmanuel Macron’s speech in April 2024 about the EU’s mortality,10 and his joint piece with Olaf Scholz in the Financial Times on the need to strengthen European sovereignty.11 Both heads of government agree that the EU is experiencing its Zeitenwende, a historical turning point that will require the sort of substantial change proposed by Mario Draghi. This is, of course, big-picture agreement only; there are plenty of details that will need to be worked out, including on how to pay for these changes. Germany continues to be notoriously reluctant to issue more common debt, in part due to the German Federal Constitutional Court’s approach to the matter.12 In their joint FT piece, both heads of government propose to “make the EU budget fit for the future and further prioritise investments in transformational expenditure and European public goods while on working on introducing new ‘own resources’ as agreed in 2020.” All in all, it seems clear that the EU is indeed at a turning point, and that changes are necessary and coming. The question is how far these changes will go, given the institutional and political limitations at play, and how we will pay for them.